Freight availability on the spot market has been trending upward since February, as depicted in Figure 1: 2008-09 Spot Market Freight Index, below. The graph represents available freight loads on TransCore load boards in 2008 and 2009. The blue line in the graph, 2009 spot market loads, first exceeded the 2008 totals in October, on a year-over-year basis. The gap between the two years widened from 10% in October to 65% when comparing November 2009 to the same month of 2008.

Figure 1: TransCore Spot Market Freight Index, 2008-09, U.S only. (Year 2000 = 100)

This year’s gradual improvement of spot freight availability contrasts with the sharp downturn in load postings in the second half of 2008. Following the financial market crisis of September and October 2008, spot freight postings continued to slide from unusually high levels posted in that year’s second quarter.

Overall freight tonnage is also trending upward in 2009, as reported by American Trucking Associations not-seasonally-adjusted index. Tonnage totals through October 2009, depicted by the blue line in Figure 2 below, contrast sharply with the trajectory of 2008 tonnage. Shipment levels fell precipitously in the fourth quarter.

Figure 2: American Trucking Associations Tonnage Index, 2008-09, not seasonally adjusted. (Year 2000 = 100)

It appears that November and December are on track to exceed last year’s tonnage for the same months, and if this trend is sustained, it may indicate the start of a gradual economic recovery in 2010. Other indicators are pointing to the imminent return of economic health, as well. Business inventories rose in October for the first time in a year, and sales rose by 1.1%, exceeding expectations. If these indicators continue to improve, they can be expected to generate further increases in freight tonnage.